Voice-only plans may hit Vi, BSNL ARPU and revenue harder than larger players

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Larger 2G subscriber bases could drive sharper ARPU changes, but experts expect limited revenue dilution

By Vallari Sanzgiri

Updated - October 20, 2026 at 08:42 PM. | Mumbai

According to the latest results, 2G users account for 85 per cent of BSNL’s total subscriber base | Photo Credit: RUPAK DE CHOWDHURI

As the deadline to offer voice-only mobile plans ends on Wednesday, analysts expect industry underdogs Vodafone Idea and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) to face a greater impact on ARPU and revenue.

Comments and analysis notes in the past have suggested that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s (TRAI) mandate to offer multiple voice-only plans is likely to benefit 2G users and feature phone users in India. As Vodafone Idea (Vi) and BSNL have a larger share of such users in their subscriber bases, experts expect the two companies to see more noticeable, though not severe, changes in their ARPU and revenue figures.

Limited Dilution

Taking Bharti Airtel as an example, which recently announced three new voice-only plans, Morgan Stanley noted that the offerings are only 7–16 per cent cheaper than its existing entry-level plans.

“Even if we assume 25–30 per cent of this cohort of subscribers (under 110 million subscribers) migrate to these lower-priced plans, it would still mean less than 1 per cent revenue dilution for the wireless business,” the analyst note said.

The telco introduced plans priced between ₹185 and ₹206, with validity periods of 28–30 days. Noting that the prices were based on TRAI data that valued 1 GB of data at around ₹7, telecom expert Parag Kar explained how the pricing could affect Vodafone Idea (Vi) and BSNL.

Revenue impact

“BSNL and Vi have the largest 2G subscriber bases. Airtel may have around 20 per cent of its total subscribers, or about 80 million, in this segment. If Vi structures its voice-only plans along the same lines as Airtel, the impact on its overall revenue will be greater,” Kar said, pointing out that Airtel had recently increased its postpaid prices.

According to the latest results, 2G users account for 34 per cent of Vi’s subscriber base, while they make up about 85 per cent of BSNL’s total subscriber base. However, the introduction of more voice-only plans is unlikely to significantly affect revenues, as the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has not prescribed prices for such plans, said Mahesh Uppal, Director at Com First (India). Moreover, 2G users have arguably grown accustomed to having some data bundled with their plans.

“Voice-only plans may not be attractive enough, even to 2G users, to trigger any major shift in usage patterns. However, consumers should have the option to choose voice-only plans,” Uppal said.

Published on October 20, 2026

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